Talk:Cat Capsule/@comment-37960650-20181228152447/@comment-37638600-20190114172121

The odds are not 0.025% at all! It would have been if it was the odds for 2 ubers out of 2 rolls! Because you can get them on your 1st and 2nd try, your 1st and 3rd, 2nd and 3rd, etc. If you use the binomial distribution, you can find it easily. Here's the formula: P(X=k) = n!/(k!×(n-k)!) × p^k × (1-p)^(n-k) Where P(X=k) is the probability of k success, n is the number of trials and p is the probability of success for each trials.

If you take your example, which is the probability of 2 success out of 10 trials with 5% of success, we get: P(X=2) = 10!/(2!×(10-2)!) × 0.05^2 × (1-0.05)^(10-2) = 0.07463...

You have 7.46% chance of getting exactly 2 ubers (excluding the guaranteed one) for the 11 rolls.

Also, the odds of getting no other uber, using the same formula, is about 59.87%, wich also means you have 40.13% chance of getting at least one.